World population growth projections

In addition to fertility rates and age distributions, religious switching is likely to play a role in the growth of religious groups. If current trends continue, by … The number of Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians around the world.

All of the experts acknowledged that estimates of the size of religious groups in the Middle Ages are fraught with uncertainty. While significant differences in life expectancy across major areas and income groups are projected to continue, they are expected to diminish significantly by Ongoing growth in both regions will fuel global increases in the Muslim population.

Defining the Religious Groups. During this period, the populations of 28 African countries are projected to more than double, and byten African countries are projected to have increased by at least a factor of five: What it means to be Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist, Jewish or a member of any other faith may vary from person to person, country to country, and decade to decade.

Higher life expectancy and the contribution of the Millennium Development Goals MDGs Life expectancy at birth has increased significantly in the least developed countries in recent years. Due to the heavy concentration of Christians and Muslims in this high-fertility region, both groups would increase as a percentage of the global population.

Beyond the Year This report describes how the global religious landscape would change if current demographic trends continue. Communications support was provided by Katherine Ritchey and Russ Oates. Bill Webster created the graphics and Stacy Rosenberg and Ben Wormald oversaw development of the interactive data presentations and the Global Religious Futures website.

Regional and Country-Level Projections In addition to making projections at the global level, this report projects religious change in countries and territories with at leastpeople as ofcovering It starts with a population of baseline age groups, or cohorts, divided by sex and religion.

One of the main determinants of that future growth is where each group is geographically concentrated today. Additionally, Guy Abel at the Vienna Institute of Demography helped construct the country-level migration flow data used in the projections.

Changing Age Structures and Their Implications The world population will also continue to age, with variations by country. Population projections are estimates built on current population data and assumptions about demographic trends, such as declining birth rates and rising life expectancies in particular countries.

The population ages 65 and older in Northern Africa is projected to nearly quadruple by For example, many countries in the world are experiencing—and will continue to experience—steady increases in the number of older adults, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of the total population.

The first chapter looks at the demographic factors that shape the projections, including sections on fertility rates, life expectancy, age structure, religious switching and migration.

Muslims will be more numerous in the U. The model uses an advanced version of the cohort-component method typically employed by demographers to forecast population growth. And in China, religious affiliation — though very difficult to measure — may be rising along with economic development.


Total fertility is assumed to continue to decline, at varying paces depending on circumstances in individual countries, to a below-replacement level of 1. Some of the authors of the UN report say that life expectancy is assumed to rise slowly and continuously.

But working with researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria, the Pew Research Center has developed an innovative way of using data on past migration patterns to estimate the religious composition of migrant flows in the decades ahead.

Interactive maps on worldpopdata. The percentage of the population ages 65 and older in the United States is projected to increase from 15 percent in to 22 percent in Conrad Hackett was the lead researcher and primary author of this report. A recent update from the United Nations has a somewhat higher estimate, 9.

But many events — scientific discoveries, armed conflicts, social movements, political upheavals, natural disasters and changing economic conditions, to name just a few — can shift demographic trends in unforeseen ways. The answer depends on continuation of the trends described in Chapter 1.

By far the largest of these groups is Sikhs, who numbered about 25 million inaccording to the World Religion Database. That is why the projections are limited to a year time frame, and subsequent chapters of this report try to give a sense of how much difference it could make if key assumptions were different.

The projections are what will occur if the current data are accurate and current trends continue. As previously mentioned, Hindus are projected to roughly keep pace with global population growth. As a result, separate projections are not possible for atheists or agnostics.

Estimates of the global size of these faiths generally come from other sources, such as the religious groups themselves.

10 projections for the global population in 2050

Bythe report assumed life expectancy to be from 66 to 97 years, and by from 87 to years, depending on the country. Providing them with health care, education and employment opportunities, particularly in the poorest countries and groups, will be a critical focus of the new sustainable development agenda.

For more details, see the Methodology. For details on how the projections were made, see Chapter 1. The Revision of World Population Prospects is the 25th round of official UN population estimates and projections that have been prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations.

Projections of population growth

Dueling projections of population growth present different visions of the world's future. Sub-Saharan Africa will see most of the world's population growth in the next century.

The world population will reach billion byup billion or 29 percent from an estimated billion people now, according to projections by Population Reference Bureau (PRB) included in the World Population Data Sheet.

The current world population of billion is expected to reach billion bybillion in and billion inaccording to a new UN DESA report, “World Population Prospects.

Apr 02,  · Worldwide, the Hindu population is projected to rise by 34%, from a little over 1 billion to nearly billion, roughly keeping pace with overall population growth.

Jews, the smallest religious group for which separate projections were made, are expected to grow 16%, from a little less than 14 million in to million. The Revision of World Population Prospects is the twenty-fifth round of official United Nations population estimates and projections that have been prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.

The main results are presented in a series of Excel files displaying key demographic indicators for each development group.

World population growth projections
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10 projections for the global population in | Pew Research Center